9/29/08

During last Friday’s Presidential debate, John McCain raised many doubts about his foreign policy aptitude. Not only did McCain commit factual gaffes, but he seemingly confused or shifted his position on Iran, as well as demonstrated a failure to understand the strategic implications of his reckless rhetoric. On Pakistan, McCain misstated President Zardari’s name, and incorrectly said that Pakistan before former President Musharraf was a failed state. On Iran, McCain said he agreed with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s position, which calls for direct talks with Iran at the Secretary of State level. McCain either misunderstood the position of one of his top foreign policy advisors or has suddenly changed positions on Iran. But perhaps the most troublesome aspect of McCain’s performance was the conflict between strategy and rhetoric when it comes to dealing with Russia. On the one hand, McCain has expressed the need to avoid a new Cold War and to work with Russia - especially in the effort to apply sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council – but, on the other hand, McCain once again used reckless rhetoric toward Russia, calling the Russian Prime Minister a KGB agent.

John McCain showed repeatedly that he did not comprehend the enormity of the challenges in Pakistan.  During Friday’s presidential debate, McCain demonstrated why he is unfit to tackle the threat from extremism growing in Pakistan.  First, he referred to pre-Musharraf Pakistan as a failed state; but, while the country “was wrestling with problems like tensions with India and serious poverty when Musharraf took power in an October 1999 coup, it had a democratically elected government and was far from being a ‘failed state’ – a country in social and economic collapse where the government no longer exercises authority.”  McCain left out that had Pakistan been a failed state, it would have constituted a grave security threat, since it possessed nuclear weapons.  Second, McCain called the newly-elected Pakistani President “‘Qadari’ instead of Asif Ali Zardari,” a troubling gaffe, considering Pakistan’s importance to U.S. counter-terrorism policy.  Finally, McCain continued to dispute the claim that the Afghanistan-Pakistan region constituted the central front in the fight against terrorism, despite Secretary of Defense Gates’ recent comments that the greatest threat to the homeland comes from al-Qaeda operating in Northwest Pakistan.  In a worrying sign, a recent Program on International Policy Attitudes found that 22 out of 23 countries surveyed thought that U.S. attempts “to counter al Qaeda since its September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States had not weakened it.” [AP, 9/27/08. Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing, 9/23/08. Reuters, 9/29/08]

McCain’s statements on Iran represented either a massive policy shift or a glaring contradiction.  Last week, his own advisor, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, contradicted McCain and seemingly supported Senator Obama’s calls for talks with Iran without preconditions: “Well, I am in favor of negotiating with Iran… I do not believe that we can make conditions for the opening of negotiations.”  In Friday’s debate, McCain explained this by saying that Kissinger had “said that there could be secretary-level and lower level meetings. I've always encouraged them,” a statement which either contradicted his previous position, or showed a massive shift in policy. Previously, McCain had never expressed any willingness to talk with Iran at any level. McCain had stated that “the belief that somehow communications and positions and willingness to sit down and have serious negotiations need to be done in a face to face fashion as Senator Obama wants to do, which then enhances the prestige of a nation that's a sponsor of terrorists and is directly responsible for the deaths of brave young Americans, I think is an unacceptable position.”  [Henry Kissinger, 9/15/08. John McCain, 9/27/08. Democracy Arsenal, 9/27/08. John McCain, 8/15/08]

McCain demonstrates strategic incoherence, calls for working with Russia and then uses reckless rhetoric. While having said the U.S. must cooperate with Russia on nuclear security and at the UN Security Council to levy sanctions against Iran, McCain at the debate once again used reckless rhetoric in relation to Russia, saying that Russia has a “KGB apparatchik-run government…I looked into Mr. Putin's eyes, and I saw three letters, a ‘K,’ a ‘G,’ and a ‘B.’” Such a line may play well on television, but it all but excludes any prospect of constructive relations with Russia and makes the prospect of a new Cold War all the more likely. Once again, McCain’s approach runs counter to statements made by five former Secretaries of State, including one of his own advisors. In a recent interview, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger rebuffed McCain’s confrontational approach: “We have a number of common issues that we have to settle, if possible, with Russia.  We need Russia for a solution of the Iranian problem. We may need Russia if Pakistan evolves in some of the directions that it might.  And it is helpful to cooperate with Russia not just on the [nuclear] question, but on the issues of energy. It is an effort that should not be decided by what happened in Georgia.” [John McCain, 9/27/08.  Henry Kissinger, 9/15/08]

Quick Hits

Global violence swelled this weekend:

• A bombing in Damascus killed 17 near an intelligence office amid signs that Syria is being targeted by Sunni militants
• Five bombs hit Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least 27 during preparations for the celebration of the end of Ramadan
• A car bomb hit a truck carrying soldiers in Lebanon, killing at least 5 including four soldiers 
• The home of a London publisher was set on fire, an attack that may be connected to his firm’s decision to publish a controversial book about Muhammad
• U.S. and Russian warships are monitoring the ship transporting tanks and arms that were hijacked by Somali pirates last week.

Citigroup has purchased the banking divisions of Wachovia, as lawmakers get set to debate the bailout plan agreed upon this weekend. European and Asian markets fall.

A new poll of public perception in 23 countries found that most nations believe that neither the U.S. nor al Qaeda is winning the war on terror. Citizens of Egypt and Pakistan had more positive feelings towards al Qaeda than negative ones.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez stated that he is interested in developing a civilian nuclear program and that Russia had offered to help.

19 European and Egyptian hostages were freed in Egypt after being abducted more than a week ago.

The U.S. deployed an advanced radar system on Israeli soil that will provide better missile-detection capabilities and strengthen Israel’s defensive capabilities.

The Washington Post examines Ban Ki-moon’s varied record as U.N. Secretary General.

A ship smuggling over 100 refugees away from the violence in Somalia broke apart. 52 deaths off the coast of Yemen have been confirmed.

A series of arson attacks has plagued Chechnya as Russian-backed government forces try to stamp out pro-independence rebels.