9/30/08

Tomorrow marks a major milestone in Iraq as the Iraqi Government takes responsibility for paying and integrating large numbers of the Sons of Iraq (SOI) - the former Sunni insurgents who began aligning themselves with the U.S. in 2006 and were one of the main reasons for the reduction in violence.  There are still significant tension between the Shi'a dominated central government and the SOIs; and, if the government does not continue to pay these fighters or integrate enough of them into the security forces, it could spell trouble.  The SOIs could stop patrolling key areas allowing violence to return, or, even worse, they could return to the insurgency and start actively fighting against the government.  While the Bush administration and John McCain may declare victory on this issue tomorrow, it's important to be patient and look for trends of violence in the coming weeks and months to truly measure how this transition is proceeding.  Meanwhile, other key political hurdles such as addressing the status of Kirkuk, agreeing on a national oil law, and having free and fair provincial elections, must all be addressed if Iraq is to achieve long-term stability.  

Tensions run high as U.S. prepares to hand over responsibility for the Sons of Iraq to the Iraqi Government.  The Sunni members of the Awakening Movement are fearful as they prepare to integrate into the Shia dominated government. Leaders of the SOI speak of the hand over in "apocalyptic terms." "Some have left Baghdad, saying they fear that the Iraqi government will conduct mass arrests after the handover. Others are obtaining passports and say they will flee to Syria." One member of the SOI expressed his fear saying, "They will kill us, One by one."  [Washington Post, 9/30/08]

Doubts over whether the Shia Government will integrate the Sons of Iraq highlight tenuous security gains.  Iraqi government preparations to take over responsibility for the Sunni-dominated Sons of Iraq, highlights dramatic, but tenuous security gains.  "Much of Iraq's dramatic security progress can be traced to a series of decisions made by Sunni tribal leaders in late 2006 to turn against Al Qaeda in Iraq and cooperate with American forces in Anbar province."  But now, this "key pillar of the U.S. strategy to pacify Iraq is in danger of collapsing," as "[t]he Shiite-dominated government in Iraq is driving out many leaders of Sunni citizen patrols."  Equally troubling is the fact "that the government has been slow to make good on its promises to recruit tens of thousands of its members into those security forces."  Capt. Parsana Deoki  warned: "The big issue that concerns us is what happens if the government drops the ball and stops paying these guys. You'd have up to 400 SOI without jobs, without an income. That presents a problem. They have military training and access to weapons -- unemployed, with weapons, young men with an established chain of command. You can fill in the blanks." [Shawn Brimley & Colin Kahl, 8/26/08.  McClatchy, 8/20/08. NY Times, 8/22/08. Washington Post, 9/30/08]

Handover of Sons of Iraq comes at time when political reconciliation remains uneven, and tensions run high over future of U.S. presence.   Iraqi politicians have been unable to translate security improvements into progress on several key issues, including the status of the Sons of Iraq, the oil-law, and the provision of essential services by the Iraqi government.  On Monday, General Odierno laid out the implications of inaction, saying: ""They're working toward this, but if they don't do this, the citizens over time will ... potentially start to move against the government." Even the touted passage of a provincial elections law "came with some major hurdles attached, at least one of which was described as a ‘very dark' cloud by the United Nations' special representative, Staffan de Mistura.  That issue involves the northern city of Kirkuk, which Kurdish leaders want as part of the semiautonomous Kurdistan region."  The lack of political progress comes at an especially sensitive time, as the U.S. prepares to hand over broader control to the Iraqi Government in the form of a security agreement, as indicated in yesterday's statements by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.  Despite John McCain's statement in August that victory in Iraq "is finally in sight," the situation in Iraq remains precarious.  [NSN, 8/21/08. Time, 8/16/08. USA Today, 9/30/08. LA Times, 9/25/08. Washington Post, 9/29/08. Senator John McCain, 8/18/08]

Quick Hits

Asian stocks dropped sharply on the news of the failure of the U.S. bailout plan, though European stocks are mixed, mostly holding steady on the expectation of an agreement being reached soon.  The price of crude oil plummeted overnight on expectations of an economic slowdown causing more turmoil in the Russian markets.

U.S. negotiator Chris Hill will go to North Korea this week, accepting an invitation from the North Koreans to re-start talks on their nuclear program.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that in order to achieve peace, Israel should withdraw from the West Bank, abandon hopes of a unified Jerusalem, and trade Israeli territory for any Palestinian land that it retains.  He also dismissed a unilateral Israeli strike against Iran as "megalomania."

Pakistan has chosen a new chief for its intelligence service, the ISI.  Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, who is close to the army chief of staff, will replace Lt. Gen. Nadeem Taj who is suspected of having ties to militants.

General David Petraeus stated that regions of Afghanistan are in a "spiral downwards" and that Pakistan must deal with its militant threat.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates criticized the shock-and-awe strategy that opened the Iraq war in 2003, saying that it "proved costly" when the U.S. was forced to transition to a counterinsurgency strategy.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai said that over the past two years he has repeatedly asked Saudi Arabia for help in negotiating with the Taliban.

Conflicting reports have emerged from the hijacked Somali ship carrying arms and tanks.  A shoot-out between rival pirates may have occurred, although the group's spokesman says there are no rivalries and that they are celebrating the Muslim feast of Eid al-Fitr on board.  The New York Times has a profile in which the pirates claim they're only in it for the money.

Kyle "Dusty" Foggo pleaded guilty to steering agency contracts to a particular firm and concealing their relationship.  Foggo was formerly the top administrator of the CIA and is the "highest-ranking member of a federal intelligence or law enforcement agency to be convicted of a crime."