10/15/08

Tonight at the debate Senator McCain will make many promises about his domestic agenda.  However, those promises will be impossible to keep as long as he continues to promote a reckless foreign policy.  McCain will claim that he is the candidate of fiscal responsibility; but cutting earmarks of $18 billion a year will do little when under his administration we will continue to spend $120 billion a year on the war in Iraq.  McCain will claim that he will reduce oil prices, but regardless of his domestic energy policy his threats of war towards Iran and the continuation of President Bush’s failed Middle East policy would likely cause oil prices to go up.  McCain will claim that he can lead America through the global financial crisis, but his checkered history with key allies and provocative policies towards China and Russia call into question his ability to lead a coordinated global response.  

McCain claims to be the candidate of fiscal responsibility, but would continue spending $10 billion a month in Iraq with no end in sight.  McCain has set himself up as a fiscal hawk, railing against wasteful government spending, and pledging to both keep taxes low and balance the budget.  This ambitious agenda is undermined by his limitless commitment to Iraq.  Though the size of the federal budget deficit is $400 billion, the United States has appropriated more than $650 billion for the war in Iraq, and direct and indirect costs are projected to run between $1-$3 trillion.  This is all while the Iraqi government maintains a budget surplus of tens of billions of dollars. It is hard to see how McCain will exercise fiscal discipline at home, while he is promoting the same commitments to Iraq that have already put the federal budget under tremendous strain.  [JohnMcCain.com, 2008. National Priorities Project, 10/15/08. Joseph Stiglitz, 2/23/08. USA Today, 10/14/08. GAO, 9/16/08]

McCain has claimed he has a program to reduce energy prices, but this claim ignores his reckless foreign policy, which would cost Americans at the pump.  New domestic energy programs are not enough.  Rising oil prices at home and unrest abroad are linked, since a majority of the world’s oil is produced in parts of the world racked by instability, including places like Iran.  Senator Biden defined this “security premium” in concrete terms, warning that the “more tensions rise, the higher the security premium goes, because people betting on the long term price of oil anticipate supply disruptions.”  Experts believe that a security premium of between 10-30% has been built into the current price of oil.  Nowhere do rising tensions contribute to rising oil prices more than Iran, which is not only a major oil and natural gas producer, but controls access to the Straits of Hormuz, through which over 25% of the world’s oil flows.  By making reckless public statements – as he did when he sang “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” at a campaign stop, and by advancing the same failed Middle East and Iraq policies of the Bush Administration, McCain would likely escalate tensions and send the price of oil higher.  [NY Times, 5/11/08.  Senator Joseph Biden, 12/06/07. NewsHour, 10/26/07. John McCain, 4/18/07]

McCain will claim that he is the candidate to handle the global financial crisis, but in the past he has alienated our international partners whose cooperation is a critical element of any response.  The financial crisis that has spread globally is an international problem and needs to be addressed as such.  World Bank President and former Bush Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said, "Just as the crisis has been international because of interconnectedness, the reforms will need to be multilateral.”  The new approach "must build toward a sense of shared responsibility for the health of the global political economy."  However, McCain’s policies and rhetoric show disdain for our European allies and a refusal to work with other international partners.  Whether it is his policy to expel Russia from the G8, or to develop a “League of Democracies,” without China, McCain policies would alienate China and Russia – two important players in the global economy.  McCain’s personal disrespect for our NATO allies could make it difficult for him to work with them. Before the Iraq war he calling Germany “Rip Van Winkle” and France an aging actress “still trying to dine out on her looks but doesn't have the face for it.”  More recently, he has refused to say whether he would meet with Prime Minister Zapatero of Spain.  [John McCain, 5/13/03. NY Times, 9/30/08. WS Journal, 10/7/08. Huffington Post, 9/18/08]

Quick Hits

Secret Bush administration memos in 2003 and 2004 “explicitly endorsed” the CIA’s use of harsh interrogation tactics including waterboarding.

The upcoming NIE on Pakistan reportedly describes the situation as “very bad,” “very bleak,” and “on the edge.”

The U.S. said that Abu Qaswarah or Abu Sara, the No. 2 leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, has been killed in Mosul.  Meanwhile, at least 1,350 Iraqi Christian families have fled Mosul in the past week, following a wave of religious attacks.

The Canadian elections strengthened Prime Minister Stephen Harper but failed to give him an absolute majority.  Political instability is expected to continue.

Georgia and Russia have entered direct talks in Geneva.  The ICJ will rule today on whether to order that Russia halt what Georgia labels ethnic cleansing in the Georgian separatist provinces.

Gunfights erupted along the Thai-Cambodian border.  Two Cambodian soldiers are dead, and 10 Thai troops may have been captured.  The dispute centers around the ancient temple of Preah Vihear.

Global stocks failed to sustain the rally of the past few days, falling in Europe after a mixed day in Asia.  Retail sales in the U.S. were down sharply in September.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is in China looking for $5-6 billion in funds to shore up Pakistan’s economy.

Iceland is struggling to solve its financial crisis, turning to the IMF, Russia and the Nordic countries for help.

The New York Times has an editorial on the “downward spiral” in Afghanistan.  The top U.N. envoy for Afghanistan warned of more attacks from the Taliban.

Zimbabwean generals, seeking protection from persecution, and senior politicians pressed President Robert Mugabe into grabbing cabinet posts, endangering the power-sharing deal.