11/13/08

One of the unnoticed evolutions in Iraq policy over the past few months is that there is now a broad consensus both here and in Iraq that for the sake of American and Iraqi interests it is time for American forces to redeploy.  The Iraqi Government and the Bush administration are negotiating an agreement, which would have all American combat forces out of Iraqi cities by mid 2009 and out of the country by the end of 2011.  Meanwhile, there seems to be agreement from the incoming Obama administration and from military leaders that the focus needs to shift from Iraq to Afghanistan.  This consensus is set against continuing political and security developments in Iraq.  Renewed violence this week raises concerns that although violence is down from peak 2006-2007 levels, it may once again be rising.  The reality is that the only way towards lasting stability is for Iraqis to stand up and make the difficult political compromises that bring about reconciliation.  The central priorities right now include effectively integrating the Sons of Iraq into the Iraqi Security Forces, holding free and fair provincial elections this winter and finding a settlement for the contested city of Kirkuk.  

A recent uptick in violence in Iraq should be cause for concern.  This week saw a flood of violence in Iraqi cities.  “Since Monday, according to police statistics, roadside bombs, car bombs and suicide bombers wearing explosive belts have killed 58 people in the capital. Deaths elsewhere included two Christian women who police said were killed by unidentified gunmen in the northern city of Mosul, where Christians say they have been caught in the middle of a war for power between Kurds and Arabs.”  “According to a tally by the Associated Press, there have been 19 bombings in Baghdad so far this month, compared with 28 in the entire month of October and 22 in September.” “Although security has improved dramatically in Iraq in recent months, Mosul, Iraq's third-largest city, remains volatile and battered. Insurgent groups have been dealt sharp setbacks there, but they continue to maintain a foothold in the province, Nineveh, which is considered their last stronghold in Iraq.”  [LA Times, 11/13/08. Washington Post, 11/12/08. Washington Post, 11/13/08]

Political reconciliation is the only way to achieve sustainable stability.  According to Iraq experts Brian Katulis and Marc Lynch, “The reductions in violence in 2007 and 2008 have, in fact, made true political accommodation in Iraq more elusive, contrary to the central theory of the surge.”  There are three major issues that, if ignored, could send Iraq into a new round of violence.  First, provincial elections – scheduled to take place early next year – will be a highly precarious undertaking.  They must be free and fair and result in a more representative government; but even if the elections occur without incident “they will likely produce a muddled outcome rather than clear resolutions.”  Additionally, the unresolved status of the Sons of Iraq has introduced a “discontinuity between governmental power and popular support,” which could have a destabilizing effect on the upcoming elections and beyond.  And finally, “one of the thorniest issues involved in the Iraq debate” - the status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk – has yet to be fully resolved.  All three of these challenges must be dealt with for there to be lasting stability in Iraq, and that will only happen if Iraqis stand up to craft their own solutions. [Center for American Progress, 9/08.  LA Times, 11/11/08]

Fortunately, there is a broad consensus for a redeployment of American forces out of Iraq.  There is basic agreement from Iraqis, the Bush Administration, and the incoming Obama administration that for the sake of American and Iraqi interests, there should be a U.S. re-deployment from Iraq.  Iraqis and the Bush Administration appear to be inching closer to an accord that “would set the end of 2011 as a concrete date for American withdrawal from Iraq.”  The Bush Administration has modified references to the 2011 withdrawal deadline in the agreement “to emphasize that any troops remaining beyond that date would be there by Iraqi invitation.” The current agreement also calls for the withdrawal of American combat forces out of Iraqi cities by mid 2009.  Moreover, President-elect Obama has long recommended that the U.S. draw down from Iraq to focus on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, a move which is gaining support among senior Pentagon strategists, including Secretary Gates and Admiral Mullen, who admit that U.S. interests are constrained by commitments in Iraq. [NY Times, 10/17/08. Washington Post, 11/06/08. Senator Barack Obama, 8/01/07]

Quick Hits

Insurgents attacked an American military convoy in Afghanistan, killing eighteen civilians and one U.S. soldier.

U.S. commanders in Afghanistan requested 3,300 more U.S. troops to train Afghan forces including the army and police.

An Iraqi soldier killed two U.S. soldiers and eleven civilians in Mosul before being shot dead by U.S. troops.

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is officially in a recession while Britain’s Chancellor believes the UK’s recession will be “short, sharp.”

Tensions between Israel and Palestine continue to escalate as Israel claims militants in Gaza have fired rockets and mortars into Israeli territory. This comes on the heels of clashes yesterday that left 5 Palestinians dead, further putting the five-month truce in peril.

Gunmen kidnapped an Iranian envoy and killed his guard in Peshawar, Pakistan.

Russia seeks an inquiry into monitors’ accounts of the beginning of the Russia-Georgia conflict in August.  The New York Times revealed these reports last week, which challenged multiple Georgian claims about the reasons for the start of the conflict.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates urged Russian calm over possible future NATO expansion in Eastern Europe.  He also criticized Russian threats to place missiles near the Baltic as “provocative.”

Iranian leaders appear to be hedging on the possibility of talks.

Accumulating evidence exposes that foreign forces, including Angolan, Zimbabwean and Rwandan, are entering the conflict in DR Congo.

Incarcerated former Taiwanese President, Chen Shui-bian, will not appeal his detention on charges of corruption.  He may be on a hunger strike.

***NSN board member Michael Cohen and the New America Foundation will hold a breakfast tomorrow, Friday, November 14, at 9:30 am to release and discuss their new report “Changing the Culture of Pentagon Contracting.”***