11/19/08

In recent months pirates have successfully pulled off a number of high profile hijackings off the Horn of Africa.  The most dramatic recent incident involves the hijacking of a Saudi supertanker with 2 million barrels of oil.  These activities represent a threat to the international system and could hamper trade, significantly raise shipping costs, and impact world oil prices.  As a truly transnational problem piracy can only be addressed through international cooperation.  Moreover, piracy is the result of failed states, in this case Somalia, which create a safe haven for criminals and terrorists to organize.  Unfortunately, the Bush administration leaves behind a legacy of alienating our allies and devaluing the mechanisms of international cooperation that are so necessary for addressing these problems.

Pirates off the Horn of Africa have wrought havoc on international shipping lanes.  This weekend saw the hijacking of yet more cargo ships off the coasts of Somalia and Kenya by pirates, despite the recently increased presence of a multinational naval force patrolling the Indian Ocean near the Gulf of Aden.  On Sunday, “[a]rmed gunmen hijacked a Japanese freighter and its 23-member crew off the coast of Somalia,” but in an ever bolder testament to the increased threat posed by piracy, armed Somali pirates, “hijacked a Saudi supertanker loaded with crude hundreds of miles off the coast of East Africa — defeating the security web of warships trying to protect vital shipping lanes.”  Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen remarked that he was “stunned” by the pirates ability to stage an attack so far from their home waters.  CNN reports that “Eleven vessels are currently being held by pirates hoping to secure ransoms for their release. They include the MV Faina, which was hijacked along with 200 crew and a cargo of weapons and T-72 tanks.”  “There have been at least 83 acknowledged pirate attacks off Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden this year.” [CNN, 11/15/08. AP, 11/18/08. Die Welt, 11/18/08. CNN, 11/18/08. The Economist, 11/19/08]

International Piracy constitutes a serious transnational threat that could hamper international trade and significantly raise costs.  The seizure of the Saudi oil tanker estimated to hold “as much as two million barrels of oil -- more than one quarter of Saudi Arabia's daily production," demonstrates why piracy is a serious threat to international security, commerce, and transportation.  Threats of similar attacks could expand the “‘war risk’ zone that already is lifting insurance costs for thousands of ships heading west of Africa, further raising the cost of piracy to world-wide shipping.”  For example, Norwegian shipping group, Odfjell SE, has ordered its more than 90 tankers to sail all the way around Africa to avoid the risk of attack by Somali pirates – a costly and complicated undertaking.  Disruptions form piracy also raise the specter of terrorists adopting the same tactics and demonstrate the vulnerability of these shipping lanes: “[a] significant attack against a large tanker in the Gulf of Aden could cause delays or closure of the traffic through Bab el-Mandab Strait preventing Gulf tankers from reaching the Suez Canal/Sumed pipeline complex. This would force tankers to divert around the southern tip of Africa, block non-oil shipping from using the Suez Canal, and lead to substantial increases in total energy costs around the world - and as this weekend's attack shows, open up vessels detouring from the Suez to pirate attack as well.” [Reuters, 11/17/08. Wall Street Journal, 11/19/08. AP, 11/19/08. IHT, 11/18/08]

Piracy is an international problem requiring an international response. Combating international piracy is a task beyond the capability of any one nation. Committed allies and friends are essential.  Rather than developing stronger alliances, the Bush administration has alienated much of the world and damaged our image abroad, making it more difficult to cooperate on transnational issues.  And while countries have been working together and cooperating in addressing the piracy problem, “[m]aritime experts say international law on jurisdiction regarding pirates is murky, with naval forces clearly permitted to attack pirates only when a commercial ship is under assault.”  In order to address this problem countries are going to need to work together to develop a clearer and more harmonized policy towards piracy.  The issue of piracy also needs to be addressed at the root of the problem.  “Piracy is a symptom of the power vacuum inside Somalia” and part of the larger, “growing menace caused by the total failure of the state of Somalia, the ultimate cause of the virus of piracy in the region.”   In recent times, the South China Sea has been “considered the most dangerous for piracy in the world…with Indonesia and Malaysia among the worst-hit nations.”  However, even in these cases pirates were able to operate because of lawless safe havens, which functioned as a base.  The threat of failed states becoming safe havens for international criminals and terrorists is a real one, and one that must be addressed closely and effectively with our international partners with whom we share common interests.  [WS Journal, 11/19/08.  LA Times, 11/19/08. Washington Post, 11/19/08. The Economist, 10/2/08]

Quick Hits

A missile strike killed 6 alleged militants in the Bannu province of Pakistan.  The strike, which is suspected to be American, would be the first strike to occur beyond the tribal areas and in Pakistan proper.  Pakistani lawmakers threatened to retaliate by cutting off two major supply routes to Western forces in Afghanistan.

Coalition forces in Afghanistan are looking for new supply routes, following a recent spate of attacks on supply convoys in Pakistan.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mike Mullen, said that the Pentagon is developing plans to implement Barack Obama’s new strategy for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and is capable of making those changes.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki publicly defended the U.S.-Iraq security agreement in a 12-minute televised address.  The agreement is getting mixed reviews in Iran.

The Iraqi parliament suspended debate on the U.S.-Iraq security agreement after lawmakers loyal to Moktada al-Sadr disrupted the session.

Allied forces arrested an Iranian man with alleged ties to the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards at the Baghdad airport on suspicion of smuggling weapons into Iraq and carrying cocaine.

In a new audiotape, al Qaeda second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri purportedly insults President-elect Barack Obama

A Moscow judge reversed his decision and closed the Anna Politkovskaya murder trial to the public.

British legal scholars and communities work to define the role of Islamic justice in the greater British legal system.

Fighting in the DR Congo seems to have mostly ceased, but confusion, instability, and humanitarian strife remain.