Tomorrow marks a major milestone in Iraq as the Iraqi Government takes responsibility for paying and integrating large numbers of the Sons of Iraq (SOI) - the former Sunni insurgents who began aligning themselves with the U.S. in 2006 and were one of the main reasons for the reduction in violence.  There are still significant tension between the Shia dominated central government and the SOIs; and, if the government does not continue to pay these fighters or integrate enough of them into the security forces, it could spell trouble.  The SOIs could stop patrolling key areas allowing violence to return, or, even worse, they could return to the insurgency and start actively fighting against the government.  While the Bush administration and John McCain may declare victory on this issue tomorrow, it's important to be patient and look for trends of violence in the coming weeks and months to truly measure how this transition is proceeding.  Meanwhile, other key political hurdles such as addressing the status of Kirkuk, agreeing on a national oil law, and having free and fair provincial elections, must all be addressed if Iraq is to achieve long-term stability.

Tensions run high as U.S. prepares to hand over responsibility for the Sons of Iraq to the Iraqi Government.  The Sunni members of the Awakening Movement are fearful as they prepare to integrate into the Shia dominated government. Leaders of the SOI speak of the hand over in "apocalyptic terms." "Some have left Baghdad, saying they fear that the Iraqi government will conduct mass arrests after the handover. Others are obtaining passports and say they will flee to Syria." One member of the SOI expressed his fear saying, "They will kill us, One by one."  [Washington Post, 9/30/08]

Doubts over whether the Shia Government will integrate the Sons of Iraq highlight tenuous security gains.  Iraqi government preparations to take over responsibility for the Sunni-dominated Sons of Iraq, highlights dramatic, but tenuous security gains.  "Much of Iraq's dramatic security progress can be traced to a series of decisions made by Sunni tribal leaders in late 2006 to turn against Al Qaeda in Iraq and cooperate with American forces in Anbar province."  But now, this "key pillar of the U.S. strategy to pacify Iraq is in danger of collapsing," as "[t]he Shiite-dominated government in Iraq is driving out many leaders of Sunni citizen patrols."  Equally troubling is the fact "that the government has been slow to make good on its promises to recruit tens of thousands of its members into those security forces."  Capt. Parsana Deoki  warned: "The big issue that concerns us is what happens if the government drops the ball and stops paying these guys. You'd have up to 400 SOI without jobs, without an income. That presents a problem. They have military training and access to weapons -- unemployed, with weapons, young men with an established chain of command. You can fill in the blanks." [Shawn Brimley & Colin Kahl, 8/26/08.  McClatchy, 8/20/08. NY Times, 8/22/08. Washington Post, 9/30/08]

Handover of Sons of Iraq comes at time when political reconciliation remains uneven, and tensions run high over future of U.S. presence.   Iraqi politicians have been unable to translate security improvements into progress on several key issues, including the status of the Sons of Iraq, the oil-law, and the provision of essential services by the Iraqi government.  On Monday, General Odierno laid out the implications of inaction, saying: ""They're working toward this, but if they don't do this, the citizens over time will potentially start to move against the government." Even the touted passage of a provincial elections law "came with some major hurdles attached, at least one of which was described as a 'very dark' cloud by the United Nations' special representative, Staffan de Mistura. That issue involves the northern city of Kirkuk, which Kurdish leaders want as part of the semiautonomous Kurdistan region."  The lack of political progress comes at an especially sensitive time, as the U.S. prepares to hand over broader control to the Iraqi Government in the form of a security agreement, as indicated in yesterday's statements by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.  Despite John McCain's statement in August that victory in Iraq "is finally in sight," the situation in Iraq remains precarious.  [NSN, 8/21/08. Time, 8/16/08. USA Today, 9/30/08. LA Times, 9/25/08. Washington Post, 9/29/08. Senator John McCain, 8/18/08]