12/15/08

President Bush’s final trip to Iraq and Afghanistan is a reminder of his disastrous foreign policy legacy.  In Iraq, instead of being greeted as a liberator, President Bush was greeted by an angry Iraqi reporter who threw his shoes at the President.  Almost six years after an invasion that was supposed to spread democracy throughout the Middle East, more than 4,000 American troops and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been killed, the American economy has absorbed approximately $1 trillion in costs, the Middle East has been destabilized and America’s image around the world has been sullied.  A report obtained by the New York Times detailing the history of U.S. reconstruction efforts in Iraq is another reminder of the poor planning and execution of a war against a country that did not have any weapons of mass destruction or direct ties to the 9/11 attacks.  The President’s trip to Afghanistan also demonstrates another cost of the Iraq war – a failure to address the threat posed by those who actually did plan and execute the 9/11 attacks and continue to pose the greatest direct threat to the United States.  Seven years after 9/11 the Taliban is getting stronger and Al Qaeda still has a safe haven on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border where it can organize, train and plan attacks.  This is the foreign policy legacy of George W. Bush.  

Bush makes farewell visit to war zones.  “Mr. Bush visited Iraq as part of an unannounced trip that later took him to Afghanistan, where he was meeting on Monday with American troops and President Hamid Karzai.”  At the first stop, “[i]n Iraq, Bush said the conflict ‘has not been easy’ but was necessary for U.S. security, Iraqi stability and ‘world peace.’ He hailed a recently signed but still controversial security pact as a sign of impending victory. ‘There is still more work to be done. The war is not over,’ Bush said, with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki next to him. ‘But with the conclusion of this agreement . . . it is decidedly on its way to being won.’  In Afghanistan, “Bush told reporters that the mission. . . was ‘the same’ as the one in Iraq: ‘To have the young democracy develop the institutions so it can survive on its own, not to repeat the mistakes of the 1980s, which is to achieve an objective and leave.’ He added that the United States also aimed to “deny a safe haven for al-Qaeda.”  However, the most dramatic part of the president’s trip was at a news conference in Iraq, when, “[t]he Iraqi journalist, Muntader al-Zaidi, 28, a correspondent for Al Baghdadia, an independent Iraqi television station, stood up about 12 feet from Mr. Bush and shouted in Arabic: ‘This is a gift from the Iraqis; this is the farewell kiss, you dog!’ He then threw a shoe at Mr. Bush, who ducked and narrowly avoided it.”[NY Times, 12/15/08. Washington Post, 12/15/08]

Reality in Iraq contradicts the Bush administration’s legacy talking points.  Last week, “A suicide bomber attacked a packed restaurant on Thursday where Sunni Arabs and Kurds were meeting to ease friction in the tense northern city of Kirkuk. At least 48 people were killed in the bombing, apparently aimed at provoking extremists along widening ethnic fault lines just as American plans to withdraw militarily from Iraq became official.”  The bombing highlights persistent flashpoints that could send the country tumbling back into chaos. The previous week almost fifty people were killed and dozens more injured in bombings in Mosul, Tal Afar, and Iskandariya.  These “attacks highlighted the fragility of Iraq's security situation as the country prepares for provincial elections early next year.”  In addition, there remain four major issues that, if ignored, could send Iraq into a new round of violence including the national referendum on the Security Agreement in 2009, the upcoming provincial elections, the unresolved status of the Sunni Sons of Iraq security forces, and the troubling indicators of “growing fault lines” between the Maliki government and the Kurds particularly over Kirkuk. [Washington Post, 12/2/08. IHT, 12/3/08. Washington Times, 12/3/08. NY Times, 12/11/08. NSN, 11/26/08. Center for American Progress, 9/08.  NY Times, 12/01/08. LA Times, 11/11/08]

New report highlights poor postwar planning. This week it is reported that in a near-finished official history of the reconstruction of Iraq, “government investigators have described the U.S. reconstruction effort in Iraq as a failure that wasted billions. Planning and execution of what has become ‘the largest foreign relief and reconstruction for any one country in U.S. history,’ with costs totaling $50 billion and counting, lacked an overall strategy and clear lines of authority and cooperation among U.S. government departments.  Answering whether the program met its goals to rebuild Iraq and modernize its infrastructure, the report concludes, ‘Generally no.’” The report “of the American-led reconstruction of Iraq depicts an effort crippled before the invasion by Pentagon planners who were hostile to the idea of rebuilding a foreign country, and then molded into a $100 billion failure by bureaucratic turf wars, spiraling violence and ignorance of the basic elements of Iraqi society and infrastructure.” [Washington Post, 12/15/08. NY Times, 12/15/08].

Bush’s claims of “hopeful gains” in Afghanistan undercut by dramatically worsening insurgency.  President Bush followed his trip to Iraq with a visit to Afghanistan, which, according to the Wall Street Journal, was an attempt to “boost support for his responses to the 2001 terrorist attacks and solidify his foreign-policy legacy.”  The Journal reported that “[o]n arrival at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, Mr. Bush spoke to more than a thousand U.S. soldiers and Marines at a hangar on the tarmac. ‘Afghanistan is a dramatically different country than it was eight years ago,’ the president said. ‘We are making hopeful gains.’”  However, the optimistic thrust of these claims was contradicted by the past few week’s developments, which confirmed Afghanistan’s deteriorating condition.  A new report by the International Council on Security and Development found that “[t]he Taliban now holds a permanent presence in 72% of Afghanistan, up from 54% a year ago.”  Additionally, a recent flurry of attacks on NATO-ISAF convoys traveling from Pakistan to Afghanistan has throttled the flow of supplies and equipment headed to international forces, forcing them to scramble to establish other supply routes.  And finally, in “a decision that reflects the rising concerns among military officers, diplomats and government officials about the increasing vulnerability of the capital and the surrounding area,” the first wave of U.S. troops headed to Afghanistan will deploy to the Kabul region.  All these developments explain why a recent strategic review, conducted by the White House War Czar, Douglas Lute, “calls for a new and broadly regional approach to insurgencies that move freely across the mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan,” designed to reverse the declines that have occurred under the Bush Administration. [WSJ, 12/15/08. International Council on Security and Development, 12/08/08. The Guardian, 12/09/08. NY Times, 12/07/08. NY Times, 12/07/08]

Quick Hits

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown travelled to India and Pakistan, trying to reduce tensions between the two countries, but also demanding that Pakistan do more to curb terrorism.  The Wall Street Journal looks at the shift towards peaceful protests in Kashmir itself.

Afghan and NATO forces killed 40 insurgents, including the regional Taliban leader, in a joint-operation in Helmand province.

Drivers in northwest Pakistan refuse to drive NATO supply convoys from Pakistan to Afghanistan, due to worsening security conditions.

China and Taiwan restore air links with a direct flight between them for the first time since 1949.

Protesters across the Arab world hailed President Bush’s shoe assailant as a hero and demanded his release.

Hamas appears to be split between its leaders in Gaza and its exiled political leader in Syria.  A truce with Israel expires on Friday, and Gaza-based leaders may want to renew it.

Israel freed 224 political prisoners in a gesture to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Police broke up an anti-government protest led by Garry Kasparov in Moscow.  Approximately 100 protestors were detained.

Thailand’s Parliament chose former opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to be the third prime minister in four months.

Somalia’s president fired its prime minister, however, it is unclear whether he has the authority to do so.

Yemeni tribesmen kidnapped three Germans.

Territorial disputes over who controls vast uranium reserves in Niger.

OPEC works to fight falling oil prices and demand.

Britain announced that it would double the maximum cash payment to wounded soldiers.