Three new National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq add up to a stunning indictment of conservative foreign policy.  Each report, prepared as part of a comprehensive re-evaluation of current U.S. strategy, contains troubling findings for our national security.  First, a draft NIE on Iraq cautions that persistent ethnic and sectarian tensions could unleash new violence on the country, a finding that casts doubt on claims by conservatives like John McCain that the U.S. is on the road to victory.  An even bleaker picture emerges from Afghanistan, which according to the NIE is on a "downward spiral," as a result of both skyrocketing violence and systemic problems that went unaddressed as the Bush Administration shifted focus from Afghanistan to Iraq.  But most distressing of all, a third NIE will report that Pakistan is increasingly unstable and that the U.S. is no closer to eliminating the al-Qaeda safe-haven in the northwest of Pakistan that represents the greatest threat to the homeland.

 These reports, reflecting the consensus views of the nation's 16 intelligence agencies, thoroughly rebuke not only the policies implemented by George Bush, but the position and plans proposed by Senator John McCain.  Instead of crafting a comprehensive plan to address our country's national security challenges, conservatives turned away from the greatest threats, and instead plunged headlong into a dangerous war in Iraq. By pursuing the same mistaken policies of the Bush administration, McCain would only exacerbate these worsening crises. Progressive leaders have consistently warned of the consequences of the conservative's missteps, pushed hard for a greater focus on the dangerous Afghanistan-Pakistan region, and have promoted a plan to bring our troops home from Iraq with honor. The time for change is now.

Afghanistan

National Intelligence Estimate finds Afghanistan in a "downward spiral" and represents a "harsh verdict" for the Bush administration.  A draft National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Afghanistan found that the country is in chaos.  Violence has skyrocketed. Yet beyond the escalation of extremist attacks, the report also assesses "that many of Afghanistan's most vexing problems are of the country's own making," according to intelligence officials.  "[R]ampant corruption within the government of President Hamid Karzai" and "the destabilizing impact of the booming heroin trade, which by some estimates accounts for 50 percent of Afghanistan's economy" has contributed to the deteriorating situation.  The NIE's "conclusions represent a harsh verdict on decision-making in the Bush administration," whose "lack of leadership" contributed to the worsening crisis, according to Henry Crumpton, formerly the State Department's top counter-terrorism official.  The administration has been slow to respond. According to the Washington Post, alarms were not sounded until early this year, "when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returned from a trip to Afghanistan in early February," but "seven months would pass before the administration, distracted by issues as serious as the Iraq war and as far afield as the Olympics, was seized with the urgency to put a new strategy in place."  [NY Times, 10/9/08. Washington Post, 10/9/08]

By fixing their gaze on Iraq, conservatives like John McCain left Afghanistan to deteriorate.  From the beginning, conservatives have been wrong on Afghanistan. In 2002, President Bush shifted sights "from counterterrorism and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan to preparations for the war in Iraq."  Bush's decisions were supported by John McCain, who in 2003 said that "nobody in Afghanistan threatens the United States of America." By 2004, McCain was saying that we had "prevailed," and later, that it was a "remarkable success."  Now, deprived of resources and attention, the mission in Afghanistan has languished. "[V]iolence by militants in Afghanistan has risen by 30 percent this year" and already the U.S. death toll exceeds that of last year. One former senior intelligence official explained the deterioration, saying that "[w]e were all hurting because of Iraq." Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen, seconded this view: "I don't have troops I can reach for, brigades I can reach to send into Afghanistan until I have a reduced requirement in Iraq."  [NY Times, 9/23/08. John McCain, 4/10/03. John McCain, 11/5/03. John McCain, 4/1/04. John McCain, 3/2/05. NY Times, 6/30/08. DNI Annual Threat Assessment, 2/27/08. Admiral Michael Mullen, 7/2/08. General Barry McCaffrey, 7/30/08]

From the beginning progressives have been focused on Afghanistan. In 2002 both Senators Obama and Biden warned that Iraq was a distraction and that we should finish the fight against Al Qaeda.  "Let's finish the fight with Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda," exclaimed Obama, while Biden said, "'fight them over there unless we want to fight them over here.' The 'over there' is not, as President Bush has claimed, Iraq, but rather the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan."   Biden also warned back in 2002 that, "the very same conditions that enabled the Taliban to come to power in the mid-1990s are rapidly emerging again... Unless we take a serious look at our policy, I greatly fear we may be setting the stage for a tragic replay of recent Afghan history." Then, last year Obama called for a change in strategy and a greater focus on Afghanistan. "As President, I would deploy at least two additional brigades to Afghanistan to re-enforce our counter-terrorism operations and support NATO's efforts against the Taliban."  Progressive leaders like Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry, Jack Reed, and Carl Levin have all been out-spoken on the need to address the problems in Afghanistan comprehensively after the Bush administration's five year distraction in Iraq. [Senator Barack Obama, 10/2/02. Senator Barack Obama, 8/01/07. NY Times, 3/2/08. Senator Joseph Biden, 5/17/02]

Pakistan

New NIE portrays situation in Pakistan as "very bleak," "very bad," and "on the edge."  A soon to be completed NIE on Pakistan reports a grim situation for the already troubled country. "A growing al-Qaida-backed insurgency, combined with the Pakistani army's reluctance to launch an all-out crackdown, political infighting and energy and food shortages are plunging America's key ally in the war on terror deeper into turmoil and violence." A U.S. official, who participated in drafting the top secret National Intelligence Estimate, said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as 'very bad.' Another official called the draft 'very bleak,' and said it describes Pakistan as being 'on the edge.'" The catalyst for much of the instability is the "Islamist insurgency based in the Federally Administered Tribal Area bordering Afghanistan, the suspected safe haven of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, is intensifying." However, the "Pakistani military is reluctant to launch an all-out campaign against the Islamists in part because of popular opposition to continuing the cooperation with the U.S. that began under Pervez Musharraf... Anti-U.S. and anti-government sentiments have grown recently."  Other problems facing the country are, "an accelerating economic crisis that includes food and energy shortages, escalating fuel costs, a sinking currency and a massive flight of foreign capital accelerated by the escalating insurgency." [McClatchy Washington, 10/15/08. Miami Herald, 10/15/08]

Pakistan's problems demand serious attention, but conservatives and the Bush administration have never had a plan.  Instead of a comprehensively committing to Pakistan, the Bush administration, supported by John McCain, pursued a failed personality-driven policy that focused solely on supporting General Perez Musharraf.  A GAO report released in April concluded that the Bush administration had no comprehensive plan to address extremist safe havens in Pakistan's tribal belts.  Now, extremists operating in the region have strengthened their hand and "Al Qaeda is more capable of attacking inside the United States than it was last year."  For all Pakistan's problem's, John McCain has been silent on this issue. Aside from vague statements to work with the Pakistani government, he has issued no new approach for the country, since President Musharraf's resignation this summer.  Instead he has chosen to deride Senator Obama for his willingness to strike at al-Qaeda's senior leadership, something McCain has refused to do without Pakistan's permission.  [NSN, A Progressive Approach Toward Pakistan. GAO, 4/17/08. NY Times, 8/12/08. NY Times, 8/12/08. Washington Post, 8/17/08. NY Times, 8/18/08. Pew Global Attitudes, 12/28/07. John McCain, 9/26/08]

Progressives offer a comprehensive plan that holds the Pakistani government accountable and ensures that aid focuses on economic development - not just conventional arms to fight India. Democratic Sen. Joe Biden, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Richard Lugar, the committee's ranking Republican, have proposed a new bill to triple civilian aid to Pakistan to $7.5 billion to get at the poverty and lack of opportunity that make extremism in Pakistan so difficult to combat. The money would go to building roads, schools, and medical facilities. Under the bill, military aid would be conditional on the certification that Pakistani security forces are: "making concerted efforts to prevent al Qaeda and associated terrorist groups from operating in the territory of Pakistan; making concerted efforts to prevent the Taliban from using the territory of Pakistan as a sanctuary from which to launch attacks within Afghanistan; and not materially interfering in the political or judicial processes of Pakistan." [Reuters, 7/15/2008; AP, 7/15/2008; Joe Biden, 7/15/08. Barack Obama.com]

Iraq

Iraq NIE reports gains are fragile, rebukes conservative triumphalism and supports progressives' caution.  The NIE on Iraq is much more cautious about stability in the country than conservative statements have suggested and warns that the situation is very tenuous, as progressives have argued.  The "analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year." This comes after a general reduction in violent incidents and a drop in civilian deaths. According to a U.S. official familiar with the report, "The draft NIE, however, warns that the improvements in security and political progress, like the recent passage of a provincial election law, are threatened by lingering disputes between the majority Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Kurds and other minorities."  Potential problems that may upset progress include, "whether the former Sunni insurgents, also known as the Sons of Iraq, find permanent employment; provincial elections scheduled for January; Kirkuk's status; the fate of internally displaced people and returning refugees; and malign Iranian influence." [McClatchy Washington, 10/7/08]

Conservative claims of "success" shown to be completely premature, as progressives have consistently pointed out the lack of political progress in Iraq. When discussing the "surge" in Iraq, John McCain prematurely celebrated victory, saying "So the fact is that we have succeeded... So we've succeeded. And we will come home in victory."  Progressives have consistently argued that proclamations of victory were inappropriate and completely premature. While the surge - among other contributing factors, such as the cleansing of ethnically mixed neighborhoods - has lowered the rate of violent attacks, American officials, experts, and military personnel all agree that that the only way to bring Iraq's civil war to a permanent end is through comprehensive political reconciliation. In fact, the stated goal of the surge was to create the space for political progress. Unfortunately, substantial political reconciliation has yet to occur. Gen. Petraeus recently said that progress was "fragile" and "reversible." As Brian Katulis noted in September, "The greatest myth promoted by Bush in his speech was found in this line: 'Political reconciliation is moving forward, and the Iraqi government has passed several major pieces of legislation.' By overstating the meager steps taken by Iraq's leaders in barely passing a few relatively insignificant laws in their parliament, Bush's statement ranks right up there with his 2003 'mission accomplished' speech."There has been little progress on key benchmarks such as the fair distribution of oil revenues and the amendment of harsh de-Baathification laws. [CBS, 7/22/08. Reuters, 9/19/08. CNN, 4/8/08. Guardian, 9/10/08. CSM, 10/16/08]

The progressive plan for Iraq is a comprehensive strategy.  The progressive strategy for Iraq begins with a phased-withdrawal of U.S. troops, carried out in consultation with commanders on the ground that pushes Iraqis to take responsibility for their country's future. This strategy "is the only approach that obliges the stakeholders to take responsibility for putting Iraq on the road to long-term stability."  It stems from a recognition, put forward by progressive leaders like Senator Barack Obama that the surge has reduced violence, but that these gains are delicate and do not address our long term interests. It also puts Iraq in the context of a broader national security strategy. "If we continue to put $10 billion to $12 billion a month into Iraq, if we are willing to send as many troops as we can muster continually into Iraq - there's no doubt that that's going to have an impact. But it doesn't meet our long-term strategic goal, which is to make the American people safer over the long term.  If that means that we're detracting from our efforts in Afghanistan, where conditions are deteriorating, if it means that we are distracted from going after Osama bin Laden who is still sending out audio tapes and is operating training camps where we know terrorists' actions are being plotted. If we have shifted away from the central front of terrorism as a consequence of enormous and continuing investments in Iraq, then that's a poor strategic choice." [Barack Obama, 7/15/08. NSN, Iraq Policy Paper. NSN, 9/9/08. CBS, 7/22/08]