2/27/09

President Obama’s announcement today marks the beginning of the end of George W. Bush’s reckless foreign policy in Iraq – a policy that has cost Americans dearly in both blood and treasure while failing to make them more secure.  For almost six years America pursued an Iraq-centric foreign policy that has ignored other threats, generated greater support for terrorism, destabilized the Middle East, undermined American credibility, undercut our best principles, and violently altered the lives of thousands of Iraqis.  Redeploying our forces out of Iraq will bring this era to an end.

Part of drawing a line under this era, though, is a return to policymaking in which Congress, the media and the American people ask tough questions and exercise oversight. The first installment of a policy to be presented today raises questions that should be addressed now and in the months ahead: does the pace of withdrawal, which is reportedly concentrated in 2010, send a clear enough signal to the Iraqi people and the world that America is redeploying out of Iraq?  Does the size of the remaining transition force, which will be in Iraq until the end of 2011, allow the U.S. military to prepare for other contingencies and enable it to rebuild after years of strain?  After years of a reckless foreign policy, the end is finally in sight – but the end will come through a long process of debate and action rather than a single speech.

President Obama begins redeployment of American forces from Iraq.  President Obama is expected to “announce plans today to withdraw the bulk of the current 142,000 U.S. troops in Iraq by Aug. 31 of 2010, leaving 35,000 to 50,000 in place until the end of 2011, senior administration officials said yesterday.” The New York Times writes, “Mr. Obama agreed to give commanders 19 months to withdraw all combat brigades, 3 months longer than he promised on the campaign trail, to guard against any resurgence of violence. The bulk of the forces will remain in place until nearly next year to allow commanders to keep as many forces as possible through parliamentary elections in December.  After August 2010, the Obama plan will leave behind 35,000 to 50,000 of the 142,000 American troops now in Iraq to advise and train Iraqi security forces, conduct discrete counterterrorism missions and protect American civilian and military personnel working in the country, including State Department reconstruction teams.  The residual troops, which the Obama administration is calling a ‘transition force,’ will remain only through December 2011, when a strategic agreement negotiated by President George W. Bush before he left office mandates the withdrawal of all American troops.” The Washington Post reports that the withdrawal “‘will be structured in such a way . . . to allow us to address some of the fundamental issues as it relates to the health’ of the overstretched U.S. military force, one official said.” [Washington Post, 2/27/09. NY Times, 2/27/09]

Withdrawal marks an end to the reckless Iraq policy of George W. Bush - a policy which undermined America’s national security and failed to make us safer. It has been more than five years since the President declared victory in the battle for Iraq. Since that day, more than 4,200 American troops have been killed and Iraqi civilian casualties number in the hundreds of thousands.  The financial costs of the war have been staggering, with direct costs running over $600 billion and long-term cost projections in the trillions of dollars.  President Bush’s decision to invade, and the subsequent chaos and violence introduced unprecedented instability, turning Iraq into a “cause célèbre” for international terrorism, forcing us to take our eye off the ball in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and empowering Iran.  A further legacy of the Bush administration’s disastrous war has been a steep decline in U.S. global prestige in the Muslim world and among allies the U.S. had counted as its closest supporters.  Even as a change in tactics helped produce dramatic reductions in violence, progress toward a stable Iraq continues to be undercut by conservative incompetence, which dates back to the war’s planning and the days that followed the invasion.  In sum, the war and the ideology that informed it have compromised U.S. security, damaged U.S. broader interests, undercut our best principles, and violently altered the lives of countless Iraqis.  [NSN, 1/6/09]

There are critical questions that the President must answer both at today’s speech and in the months ahead.  While the President’s plan marks a clear break with the reckless policies of the Bush administration, it also raises some important challenges.  First, with most withdrawals occurring in 2010 and the lack of a clear and significant early downpayment on the redeployment of American forces, there is a danger that the plan does not send a clear enough signal to the Iraqi people, the Muslim world, America’s allies and the American people.  This could undermine American credibility inside Iraq and around the Middle East and could be problematic for the upcoming SOFA referendum in Iraq this summer.  President Obama’s message on withdrawal during today’s speech should be as unambiguous as possible.  The Iraqis and our allies will need explicit reassurance of intention to leave Iraq.  Second, the proposed size of the transition force, will require careful explanation of a clear training and counterterrorism mission that is in the interest of America’s national security.  Moreover, the size of the transition force in Iraq must not impede the military’s ability to properly plan for other contingencies, and it must give the military the flexibility it requires after years of strain.  [Washington Post, 2/27/09. NY Times, 2/27/09.  Foreign Policy, 2/26/09]

What We’re Reading

The Justice Department moves an enemy combatant case to U.S. courts instead of a military tribunal.

The United States, Afghanistan and Pakistan will meet regularly for trilateral talks on the situation in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region.

Pakistan deploys troops after violent protests by supporters of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

The Senate Intelligence Committee prepares to investigate the CIA’s detention and interrogation practices under the Bush administration.

The U.S. economy shrank 6.2% last quarter, more than expected and the largest drop in twenty-five years.  The U.S. will take control of up to 36% of Citibank in a further bailout arrangement.  The World Bank will offer aid to Eastern Europe.

Hamas and Fatah announce steps towards reconciliation.  The U.S. helps build the Palestinian security force.

Authorities find a mass grave in the headquarters of Bangladesh’s mutinous border guards.

Tensions rise in Bosnia as Serbs threaten to seek independence.  Five top Serbian officials were found guilty of war crimes in Kosovo.

Space debris regularly threatens important satellites.

Commentary of the Day

The Financial Times looks at options for talking to Iran.

Alexander Belenky applauds the decision to allow photography of the coffins of returning war dead, but wonders if the decision is irrelevant due to the outcry over the Bush administration’s censorship.

Sunny Hundal slams a Daily Mail column for saying that second- and third-generation children born in the UK but of other descent are not “British.”