7/30/09

Yesterday Secretary Gates said the handover of security to Iraqi forces was going smoothly and that the withdrawal of U.S. forces could potentially be accelerated. Gates’ comments indicate that the U.S. is well on its way to removing its combat forces in accordance with the 19 month timeline outlined by President Obama and the Status of Forces Agreement signed by President Bush. The last month has shown that the Iraqi government can stand on its own, as Prime Minister Maliki has exerted Iraqi autonomy, demonstrating that the withdrawal timeline advocated by progressives of between one to two years was entirely feasible. Iraq still faces many lingering political challenges, such as Arab-Kurdish tension, the integration of Sunni security forces, and the establishment of an Iraqi oil law – all issues that the Bush administration’s “surge” failed to address. While the Obama administration will try to help mediate these disputes, how Iraq deals with these problems is up to the Iraqis and not American soldiers and Marines. Our troops have done their job. It is now up to Iraq’s political leaders to do theirs. A strategy that progressives have promoted for more than four years – and which have come to have broad bipartisan support – is quietly moving forward.

Defense Secretary Gates “heartened” by situation in Iraq, says U.S. withdrawal may be accelerated.  On his trip to Iraq, Defense Secretary Gates observed the progress that has been made in the transfer of security in urban centers to the Iraqi Security Forces.  ABC News reports, “Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that US troops may pick up the pace of withdrawing from Iraq this year. Gates said yesterday he has been ‘heartened’ by progress since US troops pulled out of Iraqi cities a month ago, allowing Iraqi forces to assume more responsibility for security…Gates said of the pace of US troop withdrawal: ‘I don't think there is anything in the cards for a slow down, I think there is some chance for a modest acceleration.’” The New York Times goes on to report that, “Speaking with reporters after his latest visit to Baghdad, Mr. Gates said another brigade of about 5,000 troops could leave by the end of December on top of the two brigades, or 10,000 troops, now scheduled to pull out this year. That would still leave the bulk of American forces in Iraq until after January’s elections… [Mr. Gates and other administration officials] expressed confidence that the month-old pullback from Iraqi cities had gone ‘better than expected.’” This follows on comments from President Obama indicating he was pleased with reports from his top general. Bloomberg reported that “weekly reports from Army General Ray Odierno, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, have been ‘extremely positive.’ ‘The violence levels have remained low,’ Obama said. ‘The cooperation between U.S. forces and Iraqi forces has remained high.’”   [ABC News, 7/29/09. NY Times, 7/29/09. Bloomberg, 7/22/09]

As Iraqis take control and assert their autonomy, tough challenges remain – ones whose solution requires Iraqi leadership, not US armed forces.  Sam Parker of the US Institute of Peace puts Iraqi independence in context: “The circumstances surrounding Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's visit to Washington this week could not be more different from the last time he was in town. In July 2006, Maliki was largely unknown, both in Iraq and in the West, and lacked a constituency. Today, he is the dominant force in Iraqi politics, has consolidated much of the emerging Iraqi state into his own hands, and has won a measure of democratic legitimacy after January's provincial elections.” The Guardian quoted Maliki’s own words:  “‘We are on the threshold of a new phase that will bolster Iraq's sovereignty. It is a message to the world that we are now able to safeguard our security and administer our own affairs.’”

Against this backdrop of Iraqis operating with increasing independence, the Obama administration is pushing for political reconciliation, a goal that, according to Center for American Progress expert Brian Katulis, the Bush administration’s surge strategy “was designed to accomplish but has not yet succeeded in doing.”  The Wall Street Journal reported today that Secretary Gates met with Kurdish leaders to urge accommodation with the central government, after comments from General Odierno on Tuesday, which indicated his feeling that Arab-Kurd tensions had replaced Sunni-Shia feuding “as the biggest problem facing Iraq.”  According to the New York Times, the U.S. is also closely monitoring the recent wave of arrests of prominent leaders of the Sunni ‘Awakening’ so that it can act as a mediator as the drawdown of U.S. forces continues. While the U.S. has encouraged political reconciliation among Iraq’s various ethnic and religious factions, ultimately the country’s future rests in the hands of Iraqis themselves.  Mideast expert Marc Lynch writes, “These are not American problems to solve.  Iraqi domestic political issues will have to be solved on Iraqi terms at this point, for better or for worse.” [The Guardian, 6/28/09. Sam Parker, 7/21/09. Brian Katulis, 7/22/09. WSJ, 7/30/09. NY Times, 7/30/09. Marc Lynch, 7/23/09]

Progressives have long argued for a responsible and timely withdrawal.  For more than four years, progressives proposed a withdrawal strategy with four key points which are now at the center of the Administration’s approach:  

• Responsible withdrawal would improve US security. In a September 2005 report titled “Strategic Redeployment,” the Center for American Progress stated “At the start of next year [2006], the United States should begin a slow and irreversible drawdown of military forces to make us safer by preserving our all-volunteer Army and refocusing all elements of American power on the real threats our country faces.”

• Iraq’s problems could not be solved by outside military forces.  In August, 2007, before an audience at the Wilson Center, then-Senator Obama stated: “There is no military solution in Iraq. Only Iraq’s leaders can settle the grievances at the heart of Iraq’s civil war. We must apply pressure on them to act, and our best leverage is reducing our troop presence.  

• US strategy needs to include significant diplomatic work in the region to help Iraq build stable relationships with its neighbors.  The Center for American Progress wrote in 2007, “The list of security challenges in the Middle East is long and daunting. But by more constructively and directly helping countries address these issues head-on through diplomacy, the United States can build a more sensible strategy for addressing difficult regional security issues such as Iran’s nuclear program.”

• A long-lasting strategic relationship would be part of a responsible withdrawal.  “After we remove our combat brigades, our mission will change from combat to supporting the Iraqi government and its Security Forces as they take the absolute lead in securing their country.” This is necessary, as the New York Times reports, General Odierno remains concerned over Iraq’s ability to defend its borders, “[t]he Iraqis will be unable to handle their own air defenses after all American troops withdraw from the country by the end of 2011, the top commander of American forces in Iraq said Tuesday.” [CAP, 9/05. CAP, 06/07. Senator Barack Obama, 8/01/07.  NY Times, 7/28/09]

What We’re Reading

Through earmarks, the House is poised to fund dozens of new ships, planes, helicopters and armored vehicles – with a price tag of at least $6.9 billion - that Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates says the military does not need.

Iranian riot police ordered opposition leader Mir Hussein Moussavi to leave a contentious mourning ceremony on Thursday commemorating those killed in the unrest after Iran’s disputed presidential election.

At least two Spanish police officers died in an explosion at a barracks on the island of Mallorca, a day after the Basque separatist group ETA detonated a massive car bomb in front of a police barracks in the northern Spanish city of Burgos, prompting fears of a renewed campaign of violence this summer.

Six members of one of Mexico's most active drug gangs were arrested this week, federal authorities said Wednesday. The arrests were the most recent in a string of high-level apprehensions targeting La Familia Michoacana.

Nigeria's League for Human Rights says overzealous security forces are killing innocent civilians as the military tries to crush an Islamist militant sect.

North Korea seized a fishing boat from South Korea on Thursday after it accidentally strayed into the North's waters, officials said, amid tensions on the peninsula over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

Commentary of the Day

A Washington Post editorial analyzed the US-Israel relation during the Obama administration following a report by the PEW center showing that that Israel was the only country where the public's image of the United States was getting worse rather than better.

An article in Real Clear World looks at Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s tough week as he reacts to the mounting challenges he hopes to overcome by stamping his authority as president.

An article in the Jakarta Post argues that the Indonesia-US relationship is on the most positive track ever in its long history, calling the two countries to “seize” the historic opportunity.

A New York Times editorial discusses how close the Bush administration came to violating laws barring the military from engaging in law enforcement when they considered sending troops into a Buffalo suburb in 2002 to arrest terrorism suspects.