9/28/09

After a week of intense international engagement, the administration’s top foreign policy officials hit the Sunday morning talk shows to discuss the difficult foreign policy decisions that lie ahead.  Fareed Zakaria laid out the stakes for the Administration, taken together:  “He wants to demonstrate at home that engagement does not make America weak.”  This weekend, the President’s top advisors took on a number of serious issues:  Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, the detention center at Guantanamo Bay – and confirmed that the Administration is moving forward with its core strategy of strength through engagement while carefully considering the implications of its policy decisions.  On ABC’s ‘This Week’ Bob Woodward drew a contrast with the past:   “As we all know from covering George W. Bush, all you had to do was find out what his gut was and then they would have meetings about how to implement what his gut was. In this case, I don’t think Obama has a gut, and he has opened the door very aggressively to other options, and they’re not going to be rushed.”
 

Secretary Gates explained the Administration’s careful deliberation on the Afghanistan policy debate:  “do we need to make adjustments?”  “Well, I -- I think that he [President Obama]-- he clearly felt that we would have to reassess where we are after the election. Now, in addition to having a flawed election in Afghanistan, we now have General McChrystal's assessment. When the president made his comments at -- at the end of March, his decisions, obviously, General McChrystal was not in place. We now have his assessment. He has found the situation on the ground in Afghanistan worse than he had -- then he anticipated. And so I think what the president is now saying is in light of the election, in light of McChrystal's more concerning assessment of the situation on the ground, have we got the strategy right, were the decisions in -- that he made at the end of March, the right ones? Do we need to make some adjustments in light of what we've found? And once we've decided whether or not to make adjustments in the strategy, then we will consider the additional resources.” [Secretary Robert Gates, ABC News, 9/27/09]

National Security Advisor Gen. James Jones discusses the review process for Afghanistan, saying that there is “no target date” for completion of the review: “Obama has scheduled at least five meetings with his national security team over the next weeks to reexamine the strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. ‘Tuesday marks the start of five scheduled intensive discussions with the National Security Council, as well as field commanders and regional ambassadors, on Afghanistan,’ Jones said. He said he expects two of the meetings to be held the next week but stressed that there is no target date to complete the review. ‘I don't have a deadline in my mind. I think the most important thing is to do it right. But it is going to have a high priority in the administration to do this pretty relentlessly.’”  [Bob Woodward, Washington Post, 9/27/09]

Secretary Clinton puts McChrystal’s review in broader context: “Well, le-- let me just put General McChrystal’s report into the broader context, because it doesn’t stand alone, it is part of a process. And-- and let’s look at what we’ve done during the last nine months under President Obama’s leadership. We inherited a situation, we didn’t reject it out of hand, we didn’t accept it out of hand. We engaged in a very thorough review. We reached some critical decisions including looking at both Afghanistan and Pakistan together because, of course, the threat goes back and forth across the borders. We also reaffirmed our commitment to going after al Qaeda—to dismantling, defeating them... we're doing this for the United States. We're doing this because we think that a return to a safe haven in Afghanistan with al Qaeda, with Taliban elements associated with al Qaeda with the same purpose to basically run a syndicate of terror out of either Afghanistan or the border region is something we cannot tolerate. And-- and-- you know, we have to recognize that this was always going to be a challenge.” [Secretary Hillary Clinton, CBS News, 9/27/09]

Administration officials consider Vietnam parallels.  Administration members tell George Stephanopoulos that an account of then-national security adviser McGeorge Bundy’s reassessment of the decision-making that led the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations into Vietnam (penned by NSN board member Gordon Goldstein) is “required reading” for the team.   Goldstein points to six lessons from Bundy’s experience:  Counselors Advise but Presidents Decide; Never Trust the Bureaucracy to Get It Right; Politics is the enemy of Strategy; Conviction without rigor is a Strategy for Disaster; Never Deploy Military Means in Pursuit of Indeterminate Ends; Intervention is a Presidential Choice, not an Inevitability.  [Gordon Goldstein, 2008]

Recognizing difficulties, Secretary Gates reconfirmed the Administration’s resolve to close Guantanamo Bay detention center:  “Well, I think -- I think it [closing Gitmo] has proven more complicated than anticipated. I will be the first to tell you that, when the president-elect's national security new team met in Chicago on December 7th, I was one of those who argued for a firm deadline. Because I said that's the only way you move the bureaucracy in Washington.   And you have to extend that date, if at least you have a strong plan, showing you're making progress in that direction, then it shouldn't be a problem to extend it. And we'll just see whether that has to happen or not.”  The importance of closing the prison was echoed this weekend, when the Marine Corps General who setup the camp and established the rules- originally in line with the Geneva Convention- spoke out on the need to close the detention center.  The LA Times quotes him as saying, “’I think we lost the moral high ground,’ Lehnert said. ‘For those who do not think much of the moral high ground, that is not that significant... But for those who think our standing in the international community is important, we need to stand for American values. You have to walk the walk, talk the talk.’” [Secretary Gates, CNN, 9/27/09. LA Times, 9/25/09]

Secretary Clinton highlighted the strengthened international cooperation that the Obama administration has built to address the Iranian nuclear issue: “[T]his week we had several very important developments. First, we had in this room a bilateral meeting with President Medvedev and President Obama. And in a very small setting where I was there the President, you know, talked with great specificity with President Medvedev about the dual track that we are on regarding the Iranian nuclear program and the upcoming meeting on October 1st, and opened the discussion about the information that we had concerning this facility... And what we also saw happen today-- later that day, was an agreement by all the members of the so-called P-5 plus 1--United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Russia, and China--all in agreement saying that we expected answers from Iran in the October 1st meeting and that we were working on what's called a dual track. We're pursuing the answers. We have made it clear to Iran that they have a right to peaceful nuclear energy for civilian purposes under appropriate safeguards and monitoring, but not to a nuclear weapons program. And if we don't get the answers that we're expecting and the changes in behavior that we're looking for then we will work with our partners to move toward sanctions.”  [Secretary Hillary Clinton, CBS News, 9/27/09]

Secretary Gates discussed the possibility of sanctions, should negotiations fail: “I think that what is critical is persuading the Iranians that -- or leading them to the conclusion that their security will be diminished by trying to get nuclear weapons rather than enhanced. And I think that because of the election, we see fissures in Iran that we have not seen before in the 30 years since the revolution. And I think that severe sanctions, if the Iranian -- first of all, we -- we have created a problem for the Iranians with this disclosure. And so the first step is the meeting on October 1st with the P5 plus one, with the Iranians, to see if they will begin to change their policy in a way that is satisfactory to -- to the great powers. And then, if that doesn't work, then I think you begin to move in the direction of severe sanctions. And their economic problems are difficult enough that -- that I think that severe sanctions would have the potential of -- of bringing them change their -- their policies.”  [Secretary Robert Gates, ABC News, 9/27/09]

Secretary Clinton emphasized the importance of working with partners like Russia in addressing international challenges:  “I think Russia has begun to see many more indications that Iran is engaging in threatening behavior. Certainly these last incidents seem to confirm that. And, finally, the Russians were very supportive of our sanctions against North Korea. President Medvedev said in this room that sanctions may not be preferable but they may be inevitable. So I think this is-- this is what diplomacy and engagement is about. We are doing what we think is right for the United States--the missile defense decision, the Iranian process--this is in the interest of our people, our security, our safety, and our friends and allies. But we also believe that in working closely with Russia, sharing information, that they have been quite helpful this past week.” [Secretary Hillary Clinton, CBS News, 9/27/09]

What We’re Reading

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates pushes back on the idea of having a timeline for a US troop presence in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Obama Administration officials have told incumbent Afghan President Hamid Karzai that he will emerge the victor in the ongoing presidential recount. And the Afghan Energy Minister narrowly escaped an assassination attempt on Sunday.

Sunni politicians in Iraq abandon a once formidable coalition, while foreign investors are still wary of pouring large amounts of money into Iraq.

The United States is seeking a wide range of sanction options against Iran, as it continues to conduct missile tests, including long-range missiles. Iran’s foray into international development projects seems to have only gained mixed results.

Honduras’ interim government has suspended constitutional guarantees, escalating tensions in the political standoff with ousted President Manuel Zelaya. Diplomats from the Organization of American States, who had been sent to help mediate the crisis, have also been expelled.

Hints of capitalism emerges in Cuba as President Raul Castro begins to offer state-owned land to farmers who want to grow crops for a profit.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel led her party to victory in Germany’s parliamentary elections, ending the “grand coalition” with the opposition Social Democrats in favor of the ideologically-closer Free Democrats.

An EU report on the Russia-Georgian War blames both Tbilisi and Moscow for stoking tensions, which led to last year’s conflict.

Clashes are reported between Palestinians and Israelis near the Temple Mount.

Indian and Pakistani negotiations were unable to restart comprehensive talks after meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations’ General Assembly gathering last year.

Commentary of the Day

Senator John Kerry believes the role of Congress in the ongoing debate on Afghanistan is to test assumptions in President Obama and General McChrystal’s strategy before sending any additional troops.

Fareed Zakaria explains why President Obama’s cooperative stance on a variety of foreign policy issues has reaped more benefits than the “machismo-go-it-alone” foreign policy tone used by conservative pundits to criticize the president.

Roger Cohen argues against the sudden affinity for sanctioning Iran, again imploring that engagement can succeed by addressing a variety of issues and including a variety of nations and institutions in those discussions.

The Washington Post is hopeful about the Obama administration’s Burma policy review, but urges the US to engage both Burma’s dictators and democratic activists.