10/20/09

Talks are taking place in Vienna over Iran’s nuclear program amongst the United States, our European allies, and the Iranians. The Obama administration has pursued an aggressive diplomatic strategy towards Iran, rooted in international legitimacy.  As a result, these talks have seen an increase in pressure on the Iranians while the international nonproliferation regime has also been strengthened. This is a welcome contrast to the Bush years, when tough sounds about Iran were made while the Iranians built up their nuclear program without delay. Because of the administration’s approach, the Iranian regime is under a level of international pressure that they have never felt before.  

Furthermore, the talks with Iran demonstrate the importance of the Obama administration’s global nonproliferation efforts. The President’s commitment to reducing nuclear weapons has strengthened America’s standing in the world and its ability to rally support against countries developing covert nuclear programs. These efforts and the Administration’s decision to engage Iran have strong bipartisan support. However, many conservatives on the Hill and prominent neoconservatives remain on the fringes, dismissing negotiations and in some cases advocating military action. These radical and dangerous views are well out of the mainstream and have been rejected by credible foreign policy experts from both parties.

Administration is forcing Iran to make a decision over the deal to reprocess Iranian enriched uranium into harmless fuel. The Week explained, “In a tentative deal unveiled Oct. 1, Iran agreed to ship its enriched uranium to Russia and France for reprocessing into relatively harmless fuel for Iran’s nuclear power plants. Talks in Vienna to finalize that deal are going on now, and if Iran follows through, that would push Iranian nukes back a year or two.” The Washington Post editorial page writes, “Administration officials rightly describe the uranium deal as a quick and clear test of Iran's intentions. If the export takes place by the end of this year -- the time frame fixed by the United States and its allies for progress in the nuclear negotiations -- the politically beleaguered regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will have demonstrated, at least, that it wants to lower tensions with the West and delay a full confrontation over its nuclear program. Conversely, if it reverses its position, or seeks to drag out the talks, then the administration will have a strong case for the adoption of new sanctions -- one that will put its relationship with Russia and China to the test.”

Talks on Monday were constructive, bogged down a bit on Tuesday, and will continue Wednesday. Tensions between the participants – including the U.S., France, Russia, and Iran - were running a bit high at the start of the conference due to “veiled public threats that it [Iran] could back away from an agreement to ship more than three-quarters of its stockpile of nuclear fuel out of the country.” As one participant aptly pointed out to the New York Times at the end of Monday’s session, “This was opening-day posturing…The Iranians are experienced at this, and you have to expect that their opening position isn’t going to be the one you want to hear.” CNN reported that at the close of Monday’s meetings: “talks between the two sides ended on an optimistic note, with the director-general of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency calling them constructive.”  However, like any complex and hard-nosed negotiations, difficulties have unfolded during the course of the discussions, namely the fact that the talks were temporarily “bogged down Tuesday over fierce Iranian resistance to French participation.” One diplomat involved told AFP the delay was “just regular diplomacy as delegations try to advance the issues.” Explaining that the challenge is “‘about how to best structure a deal so that everyone can be satisfied. Even beyond the politics this is complicated,’ the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.” CNN reported that talks were going to continue tomorrow, “Iranian officials are expected to huddle again with their Western counterparts Wednesday to hammer out a deal about the future of Tehran's nuclear program.” [The Week, 10/20/09. Washington Post, 10/20/09. NYTimes, 10/20/09, Associated Press, 10/20/09, AFP, 10/20/09. CNN, 10/19/09]

Nuclear talks with Iran are one facet of the Obama administration’s commitment to furthering the broader global non-proliferation agenda. Tomorrow at the United States Institute of Peace, Secretary of State Clinton is set to deliver a major policy address about reinvigorating the nonproliferation regime and continuing U.S.-led efforts towards global non-proliferation. The IAEA discussions taking place amongst the U.S., Russia, France and Iran reinforce the path of engagement the Administration is pursuing in the global nuclear arena, as evidenced by the following steps:

• Re-committed the U.S. to supporting and strengthening the nonproliferation regime. In his speech before the General Assembly in late September, President Obama renewed his pledge to reduce the threat posed by nuclear weapons:  “We will pursue a new agreement with Russia to substantially reduce our strategic warheads and launchers. We will move forward with ratification of the Test Ban Treaty, and work with others to bring the Treaty into force so that nuclear testing is permanently prohibited. We will complete a Nuclear Posture Review that opens the door to deeper cuts, and reduces the role of nuclear weapons. And we will call upon countries to begin negotiations in January on a treaty to end the production of fissile material for weapons.” [President Obama, 9/23/09]

• Obtained international support for a resolution to strengthen the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The Administration gained the support of the Russians and the Chinese for a resolution to “strengthen the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in a Security Council session” at the U.N.  The treaty sets the core international standard that discourages countries from seeking nuclear weapons – a norm that has influenced Brazil, South Africa, Ukraine, Japan and other key nations to remain non-nuclear or even renounce existing weapons. [NY Times, 9/24/09]

• The Obama administration has gotten the international community to “step up” on Iran. As the Washington Post put it, “When President Obama announced efforts to curb Iran's nuclear program through diplomatic engagement, the concern in Israel was that open-ended talks would allow the Islamic republic time to continue toward its suspected goal of developing a nuclear weapon. But as that engagement took its first major step [in] Geneva, the Israelis were tempering their doubts…There is a sense in the past few days that the concern of the international community has gone up a step.” [Washington Post, 10/02/09]

• The U.S. has reset its relationship with Russia and restarted arms-control talks. By ending the failed missile defense program last month, the Administration bolstered relations with Russia, a key partner for addressing nuclear proliferation. The Washington Post reported, “the abrupt reversal of U.S. defense policy immediately brought plaudits from Russian officials, who had viewed the prospect of an American missile shield system on their country's western border as an affront. The shift raised the possibility of greater cooperation between the two powers on containing the Iranian threat and in negotiating an extension of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START, which expires in early December.”  [Washington Post, 9/18/09. NY Times, 9/24/09]

Despite bipartisan support for engagement, extreme conservatives continue reckless rhetoric on Iran.  Bipartisan in favor of the Obama administration’s strategy of engagement with Iran has grown, but extreme conservatives continue to stand outside the mainstream and against this position. In an op-ed for the Washington Times, John Bolton stated: “Taken together, weakness and indecisiveness have proved historically to be a toxic combination for America's global interests. That is exactly the combination we now see under President Obama.”  Possible 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney called Iran an “unalloyed evil,” and declared that the President should pursue “comprehensive, withering sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and international support for the forces of freedom within Iran,” adding that “the military option must remain on the table – and that threat needs to be credible.”  While Bolton and Romney indulge in extreme rambling rhetoric, the Obama administration’s Iran policy has received strong support from traditional conservatives:

• Ambassador Nick Burns, former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs for the Bush administration: Engagement has put Iran on the ‘defensive.’ “Here again, I would just credit President Obama. I know that there are critics, particularly on the right, who say that engagement isn't going to work and that it has been a waste of time. I very strongly disagree with that. I think President Obama made clear from the very first moments of his presidency, from the clenched fist reference in his inaugural speech, through his Nowruz message to the Iranian people and then through his offer to negotiate unconditionally—I think he turned the tables on the Iranians. He has helped to put them on the defensive. I do think these talks start with the Iranians in a difficult position.” [Ambassador Nick Burns, 10/01/09]

• Chester Crocker, a Reagan-era State Department official says that the administration’s critics misunderstand engagement.  He writes in the New York Times: “Let’s get a few things straight. Engagement in statecraft is not about sweet talk. Nor is it based on the illusion that our problems with rogue regimes can be solved if only we would talk to them. Engagement is not normalization, and its goal is not improved relations. It is not akin to détente, working for rapprochement, or appeasement... diplomatic engagement is proven to work — in the right circumstances.” [Chester Crocker, 9/14/09]

• Secretary of Defense Robert Gates: “Our view, and the view that we have shared, I might say, strongly with all of our friends and allies, in the region as well as elsewhere, is that the way to deal with the Iranian nuclear program at this point is through diplomatic and economic efforts.” [Robert Gates, 9/04/09]

[John Bolton, via the LA Times, 10/19/09. Mitt Romney, via the Washington Post, 10/19/09. Mitt Romney, via Politico, 10/19/09]

What We’re Reading

After an UN-backed commission voided a large percentage of votes from the Afghan presidential election, incumbent President Hamid Karzai has agreed to hold a run-off election against his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah.

The Pakistani Army claims to have made gains against Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters in South Waziristan, but resistance has been fierce.

The Iraqi parliament has failed for a second time to vote on an election law to set up new elections slated for January. Meanwhile, the Obama administration is playing host to Iraqi government officials seeking investors for the various reconstruction projects in their country. Gangs have created a public safety crisis at Mustansiriya University, one of Iraq’s most prestigious universities.

The Obama administration’s new unveiled policy on Sudan will emphasize ameliorating the political tension between Northern and Southern Sudan, expanding beyond the humanitarian crisis in Darfur.

Brazil will spend over $60 million dollars in federal aid to local law enforcement in order to help control crime in hopes of maintaining the international communities’ confidence in hosting the 2016 Summer Olympic Games.

The Obama administration is finding new ways to keep weapons inspectors in Russia, in a bid to prevent a loss of nuclear weapons verification resulting from the START arms control treaty expiring on December the 5th of this year.

Political talks between opposing political parties in Honduras have stalled, unable to agree on whether or not ousted President Manuel Zelaya will be allowed to finish his term in office.

Re-elected Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has installed new technocrats into his cabinet, instead of members of his political party, in a bid to garner more confidence in his economic reforms’ ability to bring more foreign investment for his country.

A small group of Kurdish rebels fighting for an independent Kurdish state in Turkey have surrendered to Turkish authorities. The Turkish government hopes that this is a sign of greater reconciliation to come.

A Department of Energy scientist has been arrested for espionage, following a sting involving the transfer of American state secrets to an FBI agent posing as an Israeli spy.

Commentary of the Day

Robert L. Bernstein argues that Human Rights Watch, an organization he formerly chaired, failed to offer even-handed criticism of the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah. He argues Human Rights Watch needs to open closed societies, advocate basic freedoms, and support dissenters, not simply offer criticism of policy outcomes.

Shuja Nawaz argues that the Pakistani civilian government needs to take charge of its offensive in South Waziristan, and not outsource the governing of these tribal areas to robust military incursions and military rule.

The New York Times reluctantly endorses President Obama’s new policy to Sudan, understanding the reluctance to work with a war criminal in Omar al-Bashir, but also acknowledging that engagement will enable Darfurians to more easily access humanitarian aid.