2/11/10 

Opposition supporters clashed with Iranian security forces on the streets of Tehran today in smaller-than-anticipated protests marking the 31^st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. Regime security forces, including the Basij militia, have blocked protesters from coalescing in the streets and squares of Tehran.  There are reports of gunfire, tear gas, and assaults on opposition supporters, including reformist politician Mehdi Karroubi.  These latest actions are part of a pattern of aggressive efforts by the Iranian regime to suppress the Green Movement demonstrations that began in the wake of last year's disputed June Presidential elections.  These protests and the government crackdowns come at a particularly sensitive time, as the U.S., Iran and the international community are at loggerheads over Iran's controversial nuclear program. 

What is clear from today is that the opposition movement continues to put pressure on the Iranian government from the inside against the backdrop of increasing international pressure from the outside.  The pressures are being advanced for different purposes - internally to reform the government, externally to stop the nuclear program - but it is pressure nonetheless. This reality requires that the U.S. take a calibrated approach.  Instead of the clumsy intervention favored by certain neoconservative pundits, the U.S. should embrace the recommendations favored by well-recognized experts on Iran.  This includes sustained and principled vocal support for human rights in Iran, as well as targeted measures against key elements of the regime.  Such an approach, which is being pursued by the Obama administration, should aim to benefit Green Movement activists over the long haul and not harm the population, while also placing increased pressure on the regime as the U.S. works on a multilateral basis to deal with Iran's nuclear intransigence.

31^st Anniversary of '79 Revolution inspires clashes across Iran. "Tens of thousands of government supporters and smaller groups of anti-regime demonstrators gathered in Tehran and other cities Thursday on the 31st anniversary of the founding of the Islamic Republic," reported the Wall Street Journal. As the Journal noted, opposition supporters faced steep challenges to turning out in force for the anniversary: "Opposition Web sites and international newswires reported arrests and several clashes, including security forces firing tear gas and paint balls into crowds of protesters in the capital. Family members of opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi said he was attacked by plainclothes militia, though he appeared not to have been serious injured."

Meanwhile, at a pro-government rally in Tehran, President Ahmadinejad sought to shift attention from Iran's domestic turmoil to its nuclear program, telling an assembled crowd "that Iran was now a ‘nuclear state,'" according to the New York Times.  "The thrust of his remarks, and the timing of his nationally-broadcast speech reflected the central role played by Iran's nuclear program in domestic politics as Tehran confronts its worst political crisis since 1979," said the Times.

Today's crackdown by the regime represents the culmination of a sustained effort to suppress dissident activity.  A separate Times story noted that scores of artists, writers, and activists are imprisoned, and that over 1000 have been arrested in the last two months according to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran.  According to Reporters without Borders, Iran has the most journalists in prison in the world, with over 65 in custody. Hadi Ghaemi, director of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, explains the rationale behind these actions: "By detaining them en masse, the government is spreading fear and intimidation, implementing a sort of a reign of terror, to dissuade potential protesters from coming out to the streets on Feb. 11."  [WSJ, 2/11/10. NY Times, 2/11/10. NY Times, 2/9/10]

In response to Iran's domestic turmoil, the U.S. should avoid becoming the center of attention and instead focus strongly on the human rights of the opposition.  The prevailing view among Iran experts is that the last thing the opposition needs as it pushes for reform of Iran's government is the heavy-handed intervention advocated by the neoconservative punditry, such as Robert Kagan, who called regime change "the best nonproliferation policy." Washington Institute senior fellow Mehdi Khalaji had this to say before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia: "The people involved in this movement believe that democracy is not a gift that can be received by others, but rather an internal effort of a people to emancipate itself from tyranny and realize its dream of justice, freedom and national sovereignty. The Iranian people appreciate President Barak Obama's policy of not intervening in Iranian political affairs and allowing them to manage their way toward democracy. Therefore, any policy toward Iran should be chosen in a prudent and cautious way that would not affect the democratic movement in a negative manner." Geneive Abdo, of the Century Foundation, expressed a similar view, saying "The ‘Green' Movement is not searching for grand gestures, just modest steps."

In an interview with Middle East Bulletin, Abdo outlined actions, which if done correctly, could have a positive impact on Iranian dissidents while simultaneously pressuring the regime on both the nuclear issue and human rights.  She called attention to legislation introduced by Rep. Keith Ellison (D - MN), which would sanction companies providing tools of repression used by the regime, and pointed out that "the opposition would like help in any sort of technology that could be used to bypass the interruptions of the internet by the state," an issue addressed in legislation put forward by Rep. Jim Moran (D - VA).

Writing for Foreign Policy, NIAC President Trita Parsi and RAND Corporation expert Alireza Nader urged the Obama administration to "be vocal in excoriating Iran's human rights abuses," explaining that "as a signatory of numerous international conventions, Iran has a legal obligation to uphold its people's human rights," and that "when it fails to do so, the United States and the world community has a responsibility to speak up."

[Robert Kagan, 1/27/10. Mehdi Khalaji, 2/3/10. Geneive Abdo, via NIAC, 2/03/10. Geneive Abdo, 2/07/10. Rep. Keith Ellison, SWIPA. Rep. Jim Moran, 12/14/09. Trita Parsi & Alireza Nader, 2/09/10]

The Obama administration gets it - supporting Iranian dissidents while also increasing pressure on the regime through targeted sanctions.  Based on its recent statements and actions, the Obama administration appears to be heeding the advice of Iran experts by speaking out against Iran's human rights abuses while pursuing smart sanctions aimed at the regime - not the population - in order to deal with Iran's nuclear program. On Monday, the U.S., together with the European Union, released a statement condemning "the continuing human rights violations in Iran since the June 12 election," specifically citing "large scale detentions and mass trials, the threatened execution of protestors, the intimidation of family members of those detained and the continuing denial to its citizens of the right to peaceful expression are contrary to human rights norms."  The U.S. and the European Union called "on the Government of Iran to live up to its international human rights obligations, to end its abuses against its own people, to hold accountable those who have committed the abuses and to release those who are exercising their rights." Additionally, the New York Times elaborated on ongoing U.S. efforts to pressure the Iranian regime through smart, targeted financial sanctions. "Senior White House officials described what they said would be a ‘systematic' effort to drive a wedge between the Iranian population and the Revolutionary Guards, which the West says is responsible for running Iran's nuclear program and has a record of supporting militant Islamist organizations and cracking down on antigovernment protesters," reported the Times. The Times went on to describe how "in putting together a United Nations Security Council resolution that names specific companies and the wide web of assets owned by the Guards, which include even the Tehran airport, the administration is hoping to substantially increase pressure on the organization, which one senior administration official described as a new ‘entitled class' in Iran." In the first demonstration of this approach, the Treasury Department just announced "‘further action to implement existing U.S. sanctions'" on Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards, freezing the assets of Khatam al -Anbiya Construction Headquarters, an arm of the Guards," according to Politico. [Joint U.S. - European Union Statement, 2/08/10. NY Times, 2/9/10. Politico, 2/10/10]