Yesterday in an interview with CBS News, McCain attacked Obama for not understanding the history of the surge. Yet McCain’s own explanation of the surge’s history was completely wrong – suggesting that he misunderstands or is indifferent to the fundamental dynamics driving events in Iraq and shaping our policy there. McCain believes that the “Anbar Awakening” that led Sunnis to abandon insurgency against the US – so critical to the reduction in violence – occurred as a result of the surge in spring 2007. In fact, the Anbar Awakening began in the summer of 2006 as a result of the Sunnis’ own calculations and the leadership of General Casey. In January 2007, McCain himself acknowledged the Awakening and called it a reason to support the surge.

For five years, US policy toward Iraq has been shaped by events we misinterpreted or disregarded. McCain’s lack of understanding matters.

Events in Anbar Province, 2006-2008
• June 2006: Ready First Combat Team (1st Brigade, 1st Armored Division) led by Colonel Sean MacFarland arrives in Anbar’s capital Ramadi. [Military Review, March/April 2008]

• September 9, 2006: In cooperation with MacFarland’s team, Sheikh Abu Risha organizes the first meeting of what became the Anbar Awakening. [Military Review, March/April 2008]

• January 5, 2007: McCain discusses the importance of the Anbar Awakening at AEI. [CSPAN, 1/5/07]

• January 10, 2007: President announces the surge in a speech to the nation. [White House, 1/10/07]

• Late January / Early February 2007: First surge brigades begin arriving. Only 2,700 new troops have arrived by end of February. [Brookings Iraq Index, 3/29/07]

• February 2007: Ready First Combat Team begins leaving Anbar. Hostile contacts with insurgents had dropped 70% from June 2006 to February 2007. [Military Review, March/April 2008]

John McCain attacks Sen. Obama on the surge’s history. Katie Couric asked McCain, “Sen. Obama says, while the increased number of U.S. troops contributed to increased security in Iraq, he also credits the Sunni awakening and the Shiite government going after militias. And says that there might have been improved security even without the surge. What's your response to that?” McCain responded, “ I don't know how you respond to something that is such a false depiction of what actually happened. Colonel McFarland was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening. I mean, that's just a matter of history.” [CBS News, 7/22/08]

McCain’s history is wrong, according to Colonel McFarland. The Commanding Officer in the Anbar province at the time, wrote an article detailing his first-hand experiences there in starting the Awakening. The timeframe he discusses is June 2006-February 2007. McFarland notes that the first surge troops were just arriving as his men were leaving Anbar. McFarland was therefore not even in Iraq when McCain places him there. [Military Review, March/April 2008]

The Anbar Awakening came before the surge. As Colin Kahl noted in Foreign Affairs, “The Awakening began in Anbar Province more than a year before the surge and took off in the summer and fall of 2006 in Ramadi and elsewhere, long before extra U.S. forces started flowing into Iraq in February and March of 2007.” [Foreign Affairs, July/August 2008]

In January 2007, McCain was aware of the start of the Awakening and used it as a justification for the surge. In a speech before the American Enterprise Institute on January 5, 2007, McCain said, “Too often the light at the tunnel has turned out to be a train, but I really believe -- I really believe that there's a strong possibility that you may see a very substantial change in Anbar province due to this new changes in our relationships with the sheiks in the region. ... But it's important, as I said in my opening remarks, that this troop surge be significant and sustained. Otherwise, don't do it.” [Washington Post, 7/23/08]

Quick Hits

The Wall Street Journal reports that “the outlines of a possible consensus” on a 2010 withdrawal date are developing for an Iraq pullout between the Bush administration, the U.S. military, the Maliki government, Senator Obama, and possibly Senator McCain.

Salon buzzes about a possible investigation of the Bush administration’s surveillance regime with new documents revealing interest in a possible inquiry modeled on the Watergate-era Church Committee.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad called the recent round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program “good,” also stating that US Envoy William Burns, who was at the meeting merely to “observe,” “spoke politely and in a dignified way.”

Senator Barack Obama continues his overseas trip with, today travelling to Israel and the West Bank. Meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, Obama reaffirmed his “abiding commitment to Israel’s security.”

The U.S. military has significantly refined its tactical approach to air strikes in Afghanistan, trying to lessen the amount of collateral damage and civilian casualties.

A boycott by Kurdish lawmakers has scuttled the provincial election legislation passed by the Iraqi Parliament.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with her North Korean counterpart today, the first such high-level nuclear talks in four years.